Will the soft fall of the world's largest economy materialize?
Markets were starting to get more confident about a soft landing for the world’s largest economy, with strong jobs growth and cooling inflation.
- This week, investors will receive an update to U.S. retail sales along with earnings results from several major retailers, which will be analyzed for insights into the strength of consumer spending amid high price pressures.
- The Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting, which will be scrutinized for clues on the magnitude of the upcoming rate hikes.
- A slew of data from China missed market forecasts on Monday, forcing the central bank to unexpectedly cut key lending rates in a bid to shore up demand. The People’s Bank of China lowered the rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility by 10 basis points to 2.75%, in a surprise move, resulting in USD/CNY jumping 0.3% to 6.7600.
Equities:
- Wall Street closed higher on Friday, with indications that inflation peaked in July boosted investor confidence that a bull market might be on the way, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes posting their fourth consecutive weekly gain.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 357 points or 1.07%, to 33,755, while the S&P 500 added 72.86 points or 1.73% , to 4,280.14 points, while the Nasdaq Composite added 232.4 points or 1.74% up to 13,559.2.
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Currency Market:
- The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Monday, benefiting from its safe haven status, while the Chinese yuan dipped after a batch of disappointing data from China prompted the country’s central bank to cut interest rates. The Dollar Index traded 0.2% higher at 105.750, near the middle of its recent trading range.
- EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.0237 weighed by concerns that the continent’s energy crisis, soaring inflation and the European Central Bank lifting interest rates will drag the Eurozone into recession later in the year or early in 2023. GBP/USD fell 0.2% to 1.2103, while USD/JPY fell 0.1% to 133.36. AUD/USD fell 0.5% to 0.7084, while NZD/USD dropped 0.6% to 0.6411.
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Commodities: Gold
- Gold prices fell to $1,785.09 an ounce after its prices closed last week with more positive momentum on the CPI data.
- Last week’s action in the gold market has gone as economists expected, in terms of the pace, the relative lack of volatility, and even directionally. There still seems to be strong resistance for gold at the key $1,802 level, and a strong support at the key $1,784 an ounce.
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Commodities: Oil
- Oil prices dropped for a second session on Monday as weak China economic data triggered concerns about demand at the world's largest crude importer while the head of the world's top exporter, Saudi Aramco, said it was ready to ramp up output.
- Brent crude futures fell $1.14, or 1.2%, to $97.01 a barrel after settling 1.5% lower on Friday. WTI was at $91.03 a barrel, down $1.06, or 1.2%, after a 2.4% drop in the previous session.
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