US Dollar Soar, Energy Crisis Suffocates Eurozone
The US dollar started the week with positive performance against most major rival currencies although a Federal holiday in the US.
- Moscow decided to cut energy to Europe until Western sanctions are lifted. Germany announced it will keep maintaining two nuclear power plants until April. So, uncertainty about next winter could impact the Eurozone for some time.
- Goldman Sachs on Monday forecast the euro to weaken to $0.97 and remain there for the next six months because demand destruction, caused by the gas crisis, will lead to "a deeper and longer contraction."
- Weak euro adds to ECB inflation headache. Some policymakers have said that the bank must pay more attention to the euro than in earlier periods of weakness, because gas is priced in dollars and a weak euro amplifies the effects of soaring energy costs.
- Money markets price in an 80% chance of a supersized 75 basis point rate increase this week, but analysts think that would do little to help the currency.
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Currency Market:
- The U.S. dollar retained a positive tone Tuesday. The Dollar Index traded 0.1% higher at 109.580, after having climbed as high as 110.270 on Monday, the highest level in 20 years.
- The dollar came off its recent highs on Monday, with the U.S. on holiday, but the currency remains in demand on expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue with its aggressive monetary tightening later this month, with solid labor market data giving the policymakers greater license to try and rein in inflation at 40-year highs.
- This dollar strength is best illustrated Tuesday against the Japanese yen, with U.S. monetary policy tightening seen widening the gap with Japan's stubbornly low interest rates.
- USD/JPY rose 0.5% to 141.33, with the pair climbing to its highest level since 1998.
- EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 0.9969, rebounding to a degree after falling on Monday below 0.99 for the first time since 2002, after Russia decided to halt indefinitely the supply of gas down its main pipeline to Europe.
- GBP/USD rose 0.6% to 1.1585, bouncing after sliding to a 2-1/2-year low of 1.1444 on Monday. AUD/USD traded largely unchanged at 0.6793 after Australia's central bank raised its cash rate 50 basis points to 2.35% earlier Tuesday. USD/CNY rose 0.1% to 6.9383.
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Commodities: Gold
- Gold prices recovered sharply from a six-week low on Tuesday as a worsening energy crisis in Europe drove up safe-haven demand.
- Spot gold jumped 0.6% to $1,726.73 an ounce, while gold futures were up 0.5% at $1,730.0.
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Commodities: Oil
- Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, paring gains from the previous session, as an OPEC+ deal to cut output by 100,000 barrels per day in October was seen as a largely symbolic move to bolster prices after the market's recent slide.
- Brent crude futures had fallen 0.5% to $95.25 a barrel. WTI crude futures inched up from Monday to $88.94 a barrel and were 2.4% higher.
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