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The day of decisive U.S. data: Gold moves above $2,300 an ounce ahead of CPI and FED decision

12 Jun,2024
The day of decisive U.S. data: Gold moves above $2,300 an ounce ahead of CPI and FED decision

Gold prices moved at a slight pace in Asian trading on Wednesday, and the yellow metal is still moving above the support level of $2,300 an ounce ahead of the release of inflation data and the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. 

- Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,311 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in August rose 0.2% to $2,330.10 an ounce.

- The yellow metal saw a sharp decline in recent sessions as traders weighed expectations of a price cut. U.S. rates are facing stubborn inflation and a strong labor market. The dollar index rose to a one-month high of 105.44, weighing on gold prices, while Treasury yields also rose.

- The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) may fall to 0.1% in May from 0.3% previously, and remains The annual rate is unchanged at 3.4%, which is much higher than the Federal Reserve's annual target of 2%. 

- The Federal Reserve (FED) concludes a two-day meeting later Wednesday, and may leave interest rates steady. Any signals about future interest rate decisions will be closely watched, with widespread speculation about a possible cut in September. Investors are wary of a potential hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, given steady inflation and a strong labor market. 

- CPI data will also be released on Wednesday ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, and expectations indicate that inflation will continue at high levels in May, a scenario that gives the Fed a stronger justification to keep interest rates high for a longer period. 

- Current market assessments suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates by just 25 basis points this year, either at a policy meeting in November or December, a scenario that supports the U.S. dollar. 

- Market participants are hesitant now and prefer to wait for more signals about the possible timing in which the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates to anticipate the movement of gold prices in the future. 

- Surprising jobs and wages data - at the end of last week - raised fears that inflation rates would remain high while confirming the flexibility of the U.S. economy, which in turn would reaffirm the rise in interest rates for a longer period. 

- On the other hand, platinum futures rose 0.2% to $961.95 per ounce, while silver futures rose 0.8% to $29.470 per ounce. 


Gold's Technical Analysis

Technically, the $2,300 level still represents strong support for the yellow metal, and as long as the price moves above the $2,311 mark and stability above, then we target the first resistance level at $2,335 and then $2,345 per ounce.

The alternative scenario, breaking out the 2,300 support level by close of H4 means the start of confirming the bearish scenario targeting the first support level of $2,275, then the level of $2,250 per ounce.

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