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Oil Set for Weekly Gains Amid New Sanctions on Iran and OPEC Cuts

17 Apr,2025
Oil Set for Weekly Gains Amid New Sanctions on Iran and OPEC Cuts

- Oil prices continued their gains on Thursday amid expectations of supply cuts and as Washington imposed further sanctions aimed at limiting Iranian oil trade, while some OPEC producers pledged additional output reductions.

- Brent crude futures rose by 56 cents, or 0.85%, to $66.41 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood at $63.12 a barrel, up by 65 cents, or 1.04%.

- Both contracts closed about 2% higher on Wednesday, reaching their highest levels since April 3. They are on track to post their first weekly gain in three weeks. Thursday marks the last trading day of the week ahead of Good Friday and Easter holidays.

- The rise in oil prices is driven by several factors: short-covering, a weaker U.S. dollar, which makes crude oil cheaper to buy, and mounting U.S. pressure on Iran. WTI could climb into the $65–$67 range, though it may face difficulty pushing higher.

- If the U.S. economy continues to grow at a flat rate at best over the next two quarters, and if China's GDP slows to between 3% and 4%, the crude oil market could be negatively affected.

- On Wednesday, President Donald Trump's administration issued new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports in a move to increase pressure on Tehran amid heightened tensions over its nuclear program.

- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday that it had received updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other nations to implement additional production cuts to compensate for exceeding their previous quotas.

- Oil prices were also supported by a significant drop in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories and a smaller-than-expected increase in weekly crude stockpiles.

- Recent selling pressure in global oil markets has mostly stemmed from fears of a major surge in U.S. oil output. However, lower refining rates suggest that supply bottlenecks could emerge.

- This week, OPEC and several banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, all downgraded their forecasts for oil prices and demand growth, citing the impact of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries, which have disrupted global trade.

- The World Trade Organization (WTO) said it expects global merchandise trade to decline by 0.2% this year, compared to its October forecast of 3.0% growth.

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