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Oil Prices Surge Amid Escalating Tensions in the Middle East

02 Oct,2024
Oil Prices Surge Amid Escalating Tensions in the Middle East

- Oil prices jumped by over a dollar on Wednesday due to increasing concerns that tensions in the Middle East could escalate, potentially disrupting crude oil production from the region.

- Brent futures rose by $1, or 1.36%, to $74.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased by $1.07, or 1.53%, to $70.9.

- Oil markets are largely focusing on the weakening global economic outlook, which negatively affects fuel demand. The balance quickly shifted toward concerns about oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.

- The United Nations Security Council scheduled a meeting on the Middle East for Wednesday and the European Union called for an immediate ceasefire.

- Iran's direct involvement, as an OPEC member, raises the likelihood of disruptions to oil supplies, especially since the country's oil production has risen to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August.

- Iran accounts for about 4% of global oil output, but an important consideration will be whether Saudi Arabia will increase production if Iranian supplies are disrupted.

- OPEC+ will meet later on Wednesday to review the market, with no policy changes expected. Starting in December, OPEC+, which includes Russia, is set to increase output by 180,000 barrels per day monthly.

- Any suggestion that production increases will continue could offset concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East.

- U.S. stockpile data was mixed, with crude oil and distillate inventories declining last week while gasoline inventories rose, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

- Oil investors are also closely watching U.S. jobless claims data on Friday, as it is expected to influence projections for the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, which could aid long-term oil demand by stimulating overall economic activity.

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