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Oil Prices Recover Some Gains but Head for Weekly Decline

27 Sep,2024
Oil Prices Recover Some Gains but Head for Weekly Decline

Oil prices regained some of their gains on Friday and edged higher, but remained on track for a weekly decline as investors assessed expectations for increased production from Libya and the broader OPEC+ group against new stimulus from the largest importer, China.

- Brent crude futures rose by 15 cents, or 0.21%, to $71.75 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 18 cents, or 0.27%, to $67.85.

- Every week, Brent futures have lost about 3.7%, while West Texas Intermediate futures are set to decline by approximately 5.7%.

- It remains uncertain whether the Chinese stimulus will translate into higher fuel demand, but it may provide some relief to the oil market.

- On Friday, the People's Bank of China lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system as Beijing launched a last-ditch stimulus effort to drive economic growth toward its target of around 5% this year.

- Meanwhile, rival factions claiming control of the Central Bank of Libya signed an agreement to end their dispute on Thursday. The dispute had led to a sharp reduction in oil production and exports in the country, with oil exports dropping to 400,000 barrels per day this month, down from over a million barrels last month. The agreement could see more than 500,000 barrels per day of Libyan supply return to the markets.

- On another front, OPEC+ is currently cutting oil production by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day but plans to reverse 180,000 barrels per day of those cuts in December.

- Saudi Arabia decided to abandon the $100 oil price target and increase its market share, which contributed to a 3% drop in oil prices in the previous session.

- Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+, has repeatedly denied targeting a specific oil price and plans to increase production in December do not represent any significant change in current policy.

- Overall, it appears that oil markets will remain very cautious about global oil balances in 2025 and what actions OPEC+ should take.

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