Oil Prices Recover Some Gains but Head for Weekly Decline
Oil prices regained some of their gains on Friday and edged higher, but remained on track for a weekly decline as investors assessed expectations for increased production from Libya and the broader OPEC+ group against new stimulus from the largest importer, China.
- Brent crude futures rose by 15 cents, or 0.21%, to $71.75 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 18 cents, or 0.27%, to $67.85.
- Every week, Brent futures have lost about 3.7%, while West Texas Intermediate futures are set to decline by approximately 5.7%.
- It remains uncertain whether the Chinese stimulus will translate into higher fuel demand, but it may provide some relief to the oil market.
- On Friday, the People's Bank of China lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system as Beijing launched a last-ditch stimulus effort to drive economic growth toward its target of around 5% this year.
- Meanwhile, rival factions claiming control of the Central Bank of Libya signed an agreement to end their dispute on Thursday. The dispute had led to a sharp reduction in oil production and exports in the country, with oil exports dropping to 400,000 barrels per day this month, down from over a million barrels last month. The agreement could see more than 500,000 barrels per day of Libyan supply return to the markets.
- On another front, OPEC+ is currently cutting oil production by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day but plans to reverse 180,000 barrels per day of those cuts in December.
- Saudi Arabia decided to abandon the $100 oil price target and increase its market share, which contributed to a 3% drop in oil prices in the previous session.
- Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+, has repeatedly denied targeting a specific oil price and plans to increase production in December do not represent any significant change in current policy.
- Overall, it appears that oil markets will remain very cautious about global oil balances in 2025 and what actions OPEC+ should take.
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