Markets are struggling hard to take a clear path in the face of successive economic data
Financial global markets witnessed another volatile trading session yesterday. Most markets were literally struggling for obvious direction.
- The US published the second quarter Gross Domestic Product, which showed that the economy entered a technical recession after contracting by 0.9% in the three months to June and following a 1.6% contraction in Q1.
- Today, the EU economic docket will feature Eurozone, France, Italy, and Spain’s GDP Growth and inflation readings. That is alongside Germany’s employment data and GDP Growth. On the US front, the calendar will feature the core and headline PCE Price Index for June, the Chicago PMI, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July.
Equities:
- U.S. stocks rallied for a second day, with all three major indexes ending up more than 1% as data showing a second consecutive quarterly contraction in the economy fueled investor speculation the Federal Reserve may not need to be as aggressive with interest rate hikes as some had feared.
- The growth forecast for second-quarter earnings has risen this week as more S&P 500 companies reported results and beat analyst expectations. Among them, “Ford Motor Co.” shares jumped 6.1% after it reported a better-than-expected quarterly net income. “Amazon.com” shares shot up more than 12% as the online retailer reported quarterly sales that beat Wall Street estimates. Shares of “Apple” were up more than 3% after hours following the company's quarterly report and upbeat forecast. The Dow Jones rose 332.04 points, or 1.03%, to 32,529.63.
- The S&P 500 gained 48.82 points, or 1.21%, to 4,072.43 and the Nasdaq Composite added 130.17 points, or 1.08%, to 12,162.59.
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Currency Market:
- The U.S. dollar was broadly a bit softer elsewhere on Friday, and the dollar index headed for a second straight weekly loss. It fell 0.5% to 105.680, its lowest since July 5.
- Japan's yen surged and is on track for its biggest weekly rise in four months against the dollar on bets that U.S. interest rates are nearing a peak after data showed on Thursday the world's biggest economy unexpectedly contracted in the June quarter.
- The GBP/USD pair maintained the bullish momentum and reached 1.2190, now hovering around 1.2165. Commodity-linked currencies posted modest intraday losses, helped by soaring equities. AUD/USD quotes at 0.6980 while USD/CAD is at 1.2820.
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Commodities: Gold
- Gold extended gains on the data, and was last up 1.2% at $1,768 per ounce, helped along by a subsequent slide in U.S. Treasury yields.
- After the GDP data confirmed recessionary fears, traders anticipate the Fed will be slower to introduce rate hikes, boosting the appetite for the yellow metal.
- Higher interest rates usually dull gold's appeal because they increase the opportunity cost of holding the asset which bears no interest.
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Commodities: Oil
- Oil prices were broadly steady, lifted by supply concerns as attention turns to the next meeting between OPEC and its allies, though fears of recession capped gains.
- WTI crude futures for September delivery rose 67 cents, or 0.7%, to $97.09 a barrel reversing losses from the previous session and on track for a nearly 3% rise for the week. Brent crude futures for September settlement, due to expire on Friday, dipped 12 cents, or 0.1%, at $107.02 a barrel.
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